How to Get a Job For Project Managers

Learn how to write resume and interview

Leadership for Project Managers

Learn how to lead and drive project success.

Project Management with AI

From a beginner to project management professional.

Agile Project Management and SCRUM with AI

Learn to run Scrum and Agile with AI.

Probability Trees

A visual diagram that lays out possible events as branches, with each outcome shown on its own limb and labeled with its likelihood. These probabilities can be combined with impacts along each path to estimate the overall effect if risks occur on the project.

Key Points

  • Shows events and their alternative outcomes as branching paths.
  • Each branch is annotated with the probability of that outcome.
  • Enables calculation of expected impact (e.g., EMV) by multiplying probabilities and impacts along paths and summing results.
  • Useful for sequential or conditional risks and for comparing alternative decisions.

Example

A project faces a supplier delay risk (30% chance) that would cost $50,000. If the delay occurs, there is a 40% chance of additional rework costing $20,000. A probability tree shows: branch 1 (no delay, 70%, $0), branch 2a (delay only, 30% x 60% = 18%, $50,000), branch 2b (delay + rework, 30% x 40% = 12%, $70,000). Expected impact = (0.18 x 50,000) + (0.12 x 70,000) = $9,000 + $8,400 = $17,400.

PMP Example Question

Which risk analysis tool maps possible outcomes as branches, assigns a probability to each branch, and allows you to compute the overall expected impact?

  1. Probability trees
  2. Risk register
  3. Monte Carlo simulation
  4. RACI matrix

Correct Answer: A — Probability trees

Explanation: Probability trees depict outcomes as branches with probabilities, enabling calculation of expected impact across paths. The risk register documents risks; Monte Carlo simulates distributions; a RACI matrix defines roles.

ICS/OT Incident Response Drills and Exercises

An incident response plan is only a theory until the people who must use it have run it under pressure. This course helps OT engineers, operations leaders, IT responders, and security teams turn a plan on paper into a tested capability.

Define safe states and manual fallback before an incident forces the decision. Build escalation paths, tabletop exercises, and scenarios that expose the gaps a document review cannot find.

Then turn the results into evidence: an after-action report, owned improvements, recovery checks, and a drill cadence that keeps the program alive after the exercise ends.

24 lessons, 2.4 hours. US$47 one-time through HKSM Courses. 30-day money-back guarantee when 50% or less consumed.

Explore the Course


ICS/OT Incident Response Drills and Exercises course preview

Launch your career!

HK School of Management provides world-class training in Project Management with AI and Agile Methodologies. Practical skills, tools, and guidance you can apply right away. Covered by Udemy's 30-day refund policy.

Learn More