HKSM
Forecast
A prediction of future project conditions and events, developed from the information and knowledge available at the time it is produced.
Key Points
- Based on current data, trends, assumptions, and known risks at the time of preparation.
- Updated regularly as new performance information becomes available.
- May be quantitative (e.g., EAC, ETC, finish date) or qualitative (narrative outlooks).
- Accuracy depends on data quality and method; uncertainty remains and should be communicated.
Example
Midway through a construction project, the project manager reviews CPI and SPI and updates the forecast to show a 6% cost overrun and a two-week schedule delay if current trends continue.
PMP Example Question
During a monthly review, the project manager uses actual cost and CPI to compute a new estimate at completion (EAC). What is this activity an example of?
- Baseline control
- Forecasting
- Scope validation
- Qualitative risk analysis
Correct Answer: B — Forecasting: predicting future results using current information
Explanation: Recalculating EAC uses present performance data to estimate future cost outcomes, which is forecasting.
