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Probability Impact Grid

A matrix used to evaluate risks by rating how likely they are to occur and how much they could affect project objectives. Each dimension receives a numeric score, and the two scores are multiplied to produce a severity value used to rank and prioritize risks.

Key Points

  • Displays risks on a grid with probability on one axis and impact on the other.
  • Uses numeric scales (for example, 1-5) to score probability and impact independently.
  • Multiplies the two scores to calculate a risk severity score for prioritization.
  • Supports setting thresholds to group risks as low, medium, or high for action.

Example

During sprint planning, the team scores three risks: vendor delay (probability 4, impact 5 = severity 20), test environment outage (probability 2, impact 4 = severity 8), and scope churn (probability 3, impact 3 = severity 9). The vendor delay, with the highest score, is prioritized for immediate response planning.

PMP Example Question

A project manager assigns separate numeric ratings for probability and impact to each identified risk and multiplies them to rank which risks to address first. Which tool is being used?

  1. Probability Impact Grid
  2. Risk register
  3. Monte Carlo simulation
  4. Cause-and-effect diagram

Correct Answer: A — grid that multiplies probability and impact to rank risks

Explanation: The Probability Impact Grid scores probability and impact independently and multiplies them to produce a severity rating used to prioritize risks.

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