HKSM
Wideband Delphi Technique
A collaborative estimating approach where team members independently and anonymously provide effort and duration estimates for work items, the spread is reviewed, assumptions are discussed, and the group repeats the process in several rounds until the numbers converge and a shared estimate is reached.
Key Points
- Anonymous individual estimates reduce anchoring and groupthink.
- Multiple rounds with facilitated discussion to surface assumptions and risks.
- Converges on a consensus estimate or a narrow range with documented rationale.
- Useful when uncertainty is high and expert judgment must be synthesized.
Example
A Scrum team needs estimates for five new features. Each member submits anonymous effort and duration estimates in a shared tool. The facilitator displays the spread, and the team discusses why some estimates are higher (e.g., integration complexity, data migration). They run a second round, and the estimates move closer. After a third round, the team agrees on a final estimate and notes key assumptions about dependencies and risks.
PMP Example Question
Which estimating technique asks team members to submit anonymous estimates, reviews the dispersion, discusses assumptions, and repeats rounds until the group converges on a result?
- Planning Poker
- Wideband Delphi Technique
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Parametric estimating
Correct Answer: B — Wideband Delphi Technique
Explanation: Wideband Delphi uses anonymous estimates and iterative rounds with discussion to reach consensus, unlike simulation or formula-based methods.
